Who Wins It?
Group Stage
Knockouts
Team Explorer
Match Predictions
Who Wins the WC 2026?
World Cup 2026 title odds across four rating engines from 50,000 Monte Carlo Simulations.
Elo
FIFA ranking
Model
Squad value
MODEL'S HEADLINE
FAVOURITE
—
WIN PROBABILITY
—
TOP 3 COMBINED
—
—
TEAMS ABOVE 1%
—
of 48 nations in the field
TITLE ODDS BY TEAM (TOP 16)
Group Stage
Probability each team advances to the knockout stage, switch the engine to compare.
Elo
FIFA ranking
Model
Squad value
QUALIFICATION PROBABILITY %
Team Explorer
Pick a nation, the whole page rewrites for that team.
— | Group —
ROAD TO THE FINAL
QUALIFY
—
top 2 of Group —
ROUND OF 16
—
round of 32 to 16
QUARTER-FINAL
—
top 8
SEMI-FINAL
—
top 4
FINAL
—
top 2
🏆 CHAMPION
—
lift the trophy
TEAM STRENGTH
BASE ELO
—
ClubElo as of June 11
SQUAD VALUE
—
rank — of 48
ELO ADJUSTMENT
—
from squad value blend
ADJUSTED ELO
—
used in the simulations
AVERAGE AGE
—
MVP
—
— · —
GROUP STANDINGS
#
TEAM
P
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS
SQUAD ROSTER
POS
PLAYER NAME
C
AGE
CLUB
CAPS
GOALS
MARKET VALUE
Match Predictions
Pick a group, six fixtures with win/draw/loss probabilities and most likely scoreline for every group fixture.
Elo
FIFA ranking
Model
Squad value
Knockout Stage
Most likely team at each bracket slot, R32 to the Final. Locked slots are solid; uncertain slots show the projected leader and their probability.
Elo
FIFA ranking
Model
Squad value
Hover or tap a slot to see the top-3 candidates. Solid slots are locked in; faded slots are projections from
10,000
simulations.